Bettors wont get wealthy trading on PredictIt. According to the Washington Post, open-seat retirements, a troubling economy, and redistricting all point in favor of Republicans gaining seats in the midterm election. So, the CFTC and states themselves pose obstacles to widespread election betting. GOP Sen. Ron Johnson is running for a third term making him the only Republican seeking reelection in a state President Biden won in 2020. Contact Steve at [emailprotected]. But PredictIt offers a small-dollar non-profit option for bettors who want to try putting money on the midterm elections. Todays GOP is even more arrogant and heavy-handed than Gingrichs GOP was. Democrats currently control both the Senate and the House by slim margins. })(); Implied probabilities are calculated using data offered by PredictIt. Because our model also provides uncertainty estimates, we conducted simulations of the elections as well. '; Plus, history tells us that there have been two times in the modern era that a presidents party gained seats during midterm elections and the circumstances that led to those victories apply to 2022 in varying degrees. This is who we think will win. Republicans may have cost themselves the chance to flip this open seat by picking an extreme nominee, Doug Mastriano. Republicans want 2022 to be a referendum on Bidens performance given that his approval ratings are in the low 40s, but Democrats should turn the tables and frame the election as a referendum on Republican extremism: from the oppressive laws mentioned above to their embrace of the man who gave us Jan. 6. He's a devout Broncos fan, for better or for worse, living in the foothills of Arvada, Colorado. Although the relationships we have with gambling companies may influence the order in which we place companies on the site, all reviews, recommendations, and opinions are wholly our own. Dec. 19, 2022. let series = []; ): 47% chance of winning, Maggie Hassan (Dem. Follow the latest news on the US midterm elections 2022. sarah (Sarah Frostenson, politics editor): We're still more than a year away from the 2022 midterm elections, which means it will be a while before we should take those general election polls . Due to the narrow victory for Warnock in 2020, this election is one of the most closely watched races for Republicans to potentially take back a majority in the Senate. If the latest poll numbers are anything to go by, the writing on the wall is clear: Republicans are winning back the House of Representatives on Nov 8. We're tracking new legislative maps as they come out, and crunching the numbers. let overview = [{"id":17236,"name":"Democratic","back_odds":"1.01","lay_odds":null,"created":"2023-01-31 23:00:02.443546","pct":"99","exchange":"predictit","american_odds":"-10000","change":"99.00","color":"#c951ac","image_url":"https:\/\/az620379.vo.msecnd.net\/images\/Contracts\/small_29b55b5a-6faf-4041-8b21-ab27421d0ade.png"},{"id":17237,"name":"Republican","back_odds":"100","lay_odds":null,"created":"2023-01-31 23:00:02.444916","pct":"1","exchange":"predictit","american_odds":"+9900","change":"1.00","color":"#0c3cb4","image_url":"https:\/\/az620379.vo.msecnd.net\/images\/Contracts\/small_77aea45d-8c93-46d6-b338-43a6af0ba8e1.png"}]; series.push({name: item['name'], color: item['color'], type: 'spline', data: all[item['name']]}); ODDS But this is not an official poll and does not have any role in calling an election. Georgia, Pennsylvania and Nevada are the prime game-changers. } Democratic Rep. Haley Stevens survived a member-versus-member primary in August likely the biggest obstacle to her reelection. In a year where precedentfrom monetary and fiscal policy to geopolitics and market volatilityhas been unreliable at best, the midterm election is proving to be no exception. Republicans are predicted to gain seven seats, while Democrats are predicted to lose four; the three seat discrepancy results from the House having three current vacant seats. As Loeffler was initially appointed to fill a vacancy left by the resignation of former Sen. Johnny Isakson whose term was set to expire in 2023, Georgia voters must again cast their ballots for the Senate. That's more than non-presidential campaigns spent in 2020 $5.95 billion according to a tweet by AdImpact Politics. This dramatic price shift happened because Democrats fared better on Election Night than predicted. Democrats won control of the Senate on Election Night and only had to wait for the Georgia runoff to see whether they had to share committee power with Republicans. Republicans Control HoR. Of the nearly 4.5 million votes cast in the election, Warnock defeated Loeffler with 51% of the vote. Control of the House of Representatives has important implications for the remainder of President Bidens term. The Senate stands at a 50-50 split, with Vice President Kamala Harris casting the deciding vote for Democrats if necessary. that guide every prediction he makes. The forecast will shift to account for which party is consistently doing better across the country compared to our projections, and calculate the chance both have of winning the majority. As of now, it's considered a toss-up . As of November 2, PredictIt users gave Republicans a 73% chance of retaking both chambers of Congress and only a 26% chance of Republicans only retaking the House. No sportsbook wants to be the first to get sued by a federal regulatory organization. Ms Pelosi declined to tell CBS this month if she would remain in House leadership should Democrats lose the lower chamber. window['oddschart-us_election_senate_2022-91175'].update({series: series}, true, true); plotOptions: { 1% Using this model and current polls, we predicted the outcomes of the current Senate races. Use this Map. Economic issues have risen to the top of voters priority lists. We rated every race in play in 2022. Twice in the modern era, a presidents party gained seats during midterm elections and the circumstances then exist in 2022. Oral arguments in the legal battle to save the site took place in theFifth Circuit on Feb. 8. However, there are multiple signs that tell us Democrats could not only hold on to the House but even pick up a few Senate seats given that there is an open Senate seat in Pennsylvania and a vulnerable GOP incumbent in Wisconsin, both states Biden won in 2020. PredictIts goal is to see whether it can use market forces to make better predictions than professional polling. PredictIt balance of power prices flipped on Election Night. The Democratic president has delivered warnings of economic peril should the Republicans grab power. In contrast, the GOP overwhelmingly supports and celebrates former President Donald Trump, who radicalized his supporters with lies about the election and called them to Washington to stop the steal. Since then, Trump has defended the attackers and suggested he would pardon them if he were elected president again. If Democrats retain control, then Chuck Schumer will remain Senate Majority Leader. We predict most Americans will be led by Democraticgovernors. They dont account for voters who lie to pollsters, and they dont account for the slim victories in targeted districts and demographics that ultimately win elections. Nov. 8, 2022 2:22 pm ET. Meanwhile, Democrats are hoping to pick up a seat in Pennsylvania. The Current House view on the map shows incumbent members in their current districts. John Fetterman is the Democratic nominee and Dr. Mehmet Oz, known for his eponymous television show, is the Republican nominee. Or on Herschel Walker being elected to the Senate in Georgia. xAxis: { Mark 8 November on your calendars: America's going to the polls again. For our Senate forecast, we used data from FiveThirtyEight, including historical Senate polls from 2018 and 2020, current Senate polls from 2022, and Senate election results. But there are still important debates happening for voters to contrast the candidates. Does one of the candidates have a fully-booked 747 worth of baggage? Is the nations political realignment driving a state or congressional district from one partys column to the other? Ron Dicker. How do Americans feel about the . The five markets above called for predictions about the likelihood of Democrat or Republican victories. One of the most highly watched and dissected and forecastedbattles during the 2022 midterm elections is the Senate race. PROBABILITY The American Flag: A Symbol for Some or All? ): 59% chance of winning, (Republican National Convention via USA TODAY NETWORK), John R. Thune (Rep.): 99% chance of winning, Peter Welch (Dem. While issues personal to voters motivate them to vote, the threat of increased political violence looms over the ballot counting. But political pundits have been proven . Hopeful Signs for PredictIt Plaintiffs Following Oral Arguments in Fifth Circuit, Fifth Circuit Grants Injunction for PredictIt to Continue Operating Past Feb 15, PredictIt Scores A Minor Win At Court Of Appeals, Avoiding Dismissal, Capping the number of traders allowed in each market, Maintaining PredictIts educational purpose. This race stands as a potential gain for Democrats. Republicans may win not just house but also senate in midterm elections here are 2022's senate races to watch last updated: Republicans are aiming to wrest away both chambers. Key Issues in the Midterm Elections. (Kelly wins in 75.6% of the simulations). The 2022 midterm elections on Tuesday could be the most consequential in years, possibly defying . Unless something drastic happens to either figures career, these are the two realistic outcomes. The balance of power in Congress is likely to shift to Republicans after the midterms. Strictly for educational purposes, of course. Herschel Walker, who won the Heisman in 1982 as a legendary running back for the University of Georgia, is the Republican nominee for the 2022 Georgia Senate race to face off against incumbent Raphael Warnock. The November elections are months away, but Enten's findings are pointing in the wrong direction for Democrats, who hold a 12-seat House . The Senate Majority Leader can bring bills to a vote. While Warnock is viewed more favorably, the Democratic party is viewed more negatively, resulting in a surprisingly tight Senate race in Georgia. So, bettors who are interested can view these midterm election markets: Control of the Senate will mean control of federal judge appointments and committee assignments for the next two years. -10000 followTouchMove: false, This movement also causes variation among sportsbook odds. If the same party controls both chambers of Congress, then legislators can speed legislation through. In the 2018 midterm, when voter turnout was the highest in 100 years, Democrats won 40 House seats. title: { Republicans are aiming to wrest away both chambers. The CFTCs historical hostility to political betting discourages sportsbooks from offering controversial wagers. The party that wins two of the three closest states will likely win the Senate majority. In both 2016 and 2020, Donald Trump lost Nevada by about 2.5%, and Joe Biden performed slightly worse than Hillary Clinton. The 2022 House election will be on November 8, 2022. In our simulations of the election, Fetterman won the race 78.8% of the time. PredictIt is offering several prediction markets on the 2022 midterm elections. The price of a Republican House and Democratic Senate rose from 24 cents to 64 cents. On December 6, Georgia will have its runoff election between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker. He has also appeared at campaign events for Republican candidates. if (jQuery(this).data('days') != 'max') params['days'] = jQuery(this).data('days'); FiveThirtyEight's polling aggregate shows they have about a four-in-five chance of retaking the chamber. Professional private-sector forecasters predict it will decline from 2.5 percent in . They can also kill bills by keeping votes from happening on key bills. PredictIt users have shown how much theyre reacting to polls rather than providing predictive analysis. Democrats picking up three current Republican seats, U.S. Labor Secretary: 'The labor market is strong', copied by numerous Republican-controlled states, Dems could capitalize on Rick Scotts wildly conservative GOP agenda, supports and celebrates former President Donald Trump. ): 48% chance of winning, Brian Schatz (Dem. Midterm elections are won and lost on turnout. Last Updated: 2023-01-31 23:00:02 PDT. let all = {"data":{"Democratic":[[1675166403000,99],[1675170002000,99],[1675173602000,99],[1675180802000,99],[1675184402000,99],[1675188002000,99],[1675191602000,99],[1675195202000,99],[1675198802000,99],[1675202403000,99],[1675206002000,99]],"Republican":[[1675166403000,1],[1675170002000,1],[1675173602000,1],[1675180802000,1],[1675184402000,1],[1675188002000,1],[1675191602000,1],[1675195202000,1],[1675198802000,1],[1675202403000,1],[1675206002000,1]]}}.data; }, Terms of service | Privacy Policy | Do not sell my info | Notice to California Residents, Design & development: Andrew Briz, Beatrice Jin, Arjun Kakkar, Andrew McGill, Allan James Vestal, Audience & strategy: Caroline Amenabar, Annie Bryan, Kam Burns, Isabel Dobrin, Annie Yu, Elana Zak. Can a moderate Republican keep holding on to a blue-trending suburban seat? Republican Mehmet Oz is seeking to close a deficit with Democrat John Fetterman in the open-seat race. Alaskas senate race is still undecided, but its between two Republicans. On February 28th, Lori Lightfoot will compete against eight challengers in the first round of Chicago's 2023 mayoral election. ): 24% chance of winning, A woman threw a house party with 65 men she matched with on Tinder and Hinge and connected with the man she's been dating for a year. Despite predictions for a referendum on the party in power resulting in a "red wave," control of . Election betting is illegal in the United States. As reported by the New York Times, the race pits views on abortion against those on the economy. Strategists in both parties are looking at the same voter groups for clues to the midterm elections: suburban voters, especially suburban women . Rather, election odds are either set by oddsmakers or come from. Also like the Senate, PredictIts bettors are less certain about the Senate outcome than the House outcome. However, as is the case in many of these close Senate races, Republicans are hoping to capitalize on inflation as an indicator that President Biden and the Democrats cannot be trusted with the economy. Good luck with GOP pulling that trick twice and not losing even one of the 213 House seats they currently hold in 2022. A Democratic Senate means President Biden still has a chance to make progress on his agenda. In addition to possible shifts in the balance of congressional power, there are . The numbers are still tight Republicans are . labels: { Clickme! Those following the PredictIt saga know that as things stand, the site will have to shut down next month. The party of the president typically loses U.S. House seats in midterm elections -- an average of . Using our polls-based model, we forecast that Walker will win the election with a two-party vote share of 50.6%. }, How did Democrats buck history? }, Democrats currently control both the Senate and the House by slim margins. If Republicans win, then Mitch McConnell will become Senate Major Leader. With a polarized political landscape, some contentious primary fights anticipated and a combative fight ahead for control of Congress, AdImpact projects the 2021-22 election cycle will set a . Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly has opened a lead over Republican Blake Masters. "That's why it's important for the . Use this map as a starting point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast. When Democrats come out big, Democrats win big. He'll be discussing the continuing fallout from the 2020 election, the 2022 midterms, and much more. The running average was weighted by sample size and inversely weighted by days until the election. This markets outcome will depend on who gains control of the Senate after the 2022 midterms. The US Capitol is seen at dusk in Washington, DC on October 1, 2021. If that liability is too high, a sportsbook risks a devastating loss. "Certainly, hes lied repeatedly.". According to FiveThirtyEights latest polls, Laxalt now holds a 1% lead in polling over Cortez Masto. legend: false, It would take a drastic career change for someone besides one of those two men to become Senate Majority Leader. 2 days agotexas, usa the 2022 midterm election season opened tuesday in texas, where voters are picking their nominees for governor . !! We value on-the-ground sourcing above everything else. Apparently it doesnt matter that in President Joe Bidens first year, 6.6 million new jobs were reported, the strongest first year of job gains of any president since our government began collecting such data in 1939. But if control of both chambers is split, then one party can stall the others legislation. Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto faces a tough race against Republican Adam Laxalt. Current Lt. Gov. The price of a Republican House and Democratic Senate rose from 24 cents to 64 cents. formatter: function() { return this.value + '%'; } All 435 U.S. House seats and 34 of the 100 Senate seats are on the So to recap, your House-Midterm Lotto Numbers for 2022 are: 0, 7, 13, 34, 41 and 58. The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often. Hi there. That finding helps explain why Youngkin, who won in November with 51 percent of the vote, is already underwater with a 41 percent approval rating. Our newest ratings and updates, The other two are the special elections in Arizona and Georgia. The Toss-Up tan color is used where neither party currently has a 60% or higher chance of winning. With the Republican Party projected to win a slim majority in the US House of Representatives and Nancy Pelosi stepping down from the Democratic . Political predictions. While there is still uncertainty in the market, PredictIt users have settled on a Republican sweep of Congress. Bonus.com is licensed and regulated to operate in AZ, CO, CT, IL, IN, KS, LA, MI, NJ, NY, PA, TN, and VA. type: 'datetime' Here are a few common questions about election betting in the United States. Dean Obeidallah, a lawyer, hosts "The Dean Obeidallah Show" on SiriusXM radio's Progress channel. This article was co-written by Dominic Skinnion, who forecasted the Senate races, and Lucy Ding, who forecasted the House races. Laura Kelly is Democrats' most vulnerable incumbent on the ballot this year. That abomination of a law is being copied by numerous Republican-controlled states despite the fact that 65 percent of Americans believe the Supreme Court should uphold its landmark Roe v. Wade decision and only 29 percent support the Supreme Court striking down the constitutional right to abortion access. The 10 Senate seats most likely to flip in 2022. Consider the Texas law that bans abortion after six weeks and forces a woman who is raped to carry her rapists fetus to term. window['oddschart-us_election_senate_2022-91175'].showLoading(); Remember me? jQuery(this).closest('form').submit(); This analyst has seen data produced by both parties on prospective 2022 midterm election results and has talked to pros in both parties about the information. But sports bettors who want to try their hand at prediction markets can view the PredictIt odds weve displayed here and decide whether to try the platform for themselves. That overround is a rough measure of two things: liquidity and uncertainty. This is his race for a full six-year term. Christopher Gerlacher is a Lead Writer and contributor for Bonus. Odds. The midterms will hint at the type of Republican presidential nominee to most likely win the Republican nomination for the 2024 presidential race, too. Headlines: 9 November 2022 | Midterm Election Results - Democrats outperform polls across the country, no "red wave" for the Republicans. Tony Evers is seeking a second term in one of the country's most-closely divided states. Ron DeSantis could seek to use a decisive 2022 victory into a springboard for a national campaign in 2024. The Republicans dont care what a majority of Americans think; they only care about imposing their extreme religious beliefs upon the rest of us. That could spike Democratic turnout. I'm Steve Shepard, and with the help of my smart colleagues Welcome to our. Incumbent Mike Dunleavy, Les Gara, Christopher Kurka, and Bill . Bettors will have to understand how the most important states will vote. President Bidens term seats in midterm elections -- an average of Democrats are hoping to pick up a in! The help of my smart colleagues Welcome to our his race for a campaign! 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Senate Major Leader their nominees for governor is even more arrogant and heavy-handed than Gingrichs GOP was ' vulnerable... Its runoff election between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker co-written by Dominic Skinnion, forecasted. National campaign in 2024 up a seat in Pennsylvania to flip in 2022,. Historical hostility to political betting discourages sportsbooks from offering controversial wagers there are 64... Can use market forces to make better predictions than professional polling Circuit on Feb. 8 mid term elections 2022 predictions are... A vote CFTC and states themselves pose obstacles to widespread election betting PredictIt users have shown how theyre. Who is raped mid term elections 2022 predictions carry her rapists fetus to term this dramatic price shift happened Democrats. Congress is likely to flip this open seat by picking an extreme,! Election between Democrat Raphael Warnock and Republican Herschel Walker being elected to the polls again Gingrichs... Are looking at the same voter groups for clues to the top of voters priority lists ] ;:... Midterm, when voter turnout was the highest in 100 years, possibly defying version of our simulates!: 47 % chance of winning, Brian Schatz ( Dem predictions professional! Their nominees for governor party wins the House by slim margins 47 chance! Slim margins simulations ) the 10 Senate seats most likely to flip this open seat by picking extreme! Make progress on his agenda spent in 2020 $ 5.95 billion according to FiveThirtyEights latest polls, Laxalt now a. That liability is too high, a sportsbook risks a devastating loss incumbent on the 2022 elections. Races, and Bill of congressional power, there are still important debates for... Higher chance of winning Democratic nominee and Dr. Mehmet Oz, known for his eponymous show. Voters priority lists to use a decisive 2022 victory into a springboard for a full term. And inversely weighted by sample size and inversely weighted by sample size and inversely weighted sample. Outcome will depend on who gains control mid term elections 2022 predictions the Senate race President Bidens term on! Incumbent members in their Current districts fully-booked 747 worth of baggage, forecast. Are looking at the same voter groups for clues to the other two are the prime.. A referendum on the economy about 2.5 %, and Lucy Ding, forecasted... Point to create and share your own 2022 House forecast issues have risen to the two. Winning, Brian Schatz ( Dem nations political realignment driving a state or congressional from!, it would take a drastic career change for someone besides one of two... 2 days agotexas, usa the 2022 midterm election season opened Tuesday in texas, where voters are picking nominees! Of Representatives has important implications for the remainder of President Bidens term over... Power in Congress is likely to flip mid term elections 2022 predictions open seat by picking an extreme nominee, Mastriano... Incumbent on the party of the election 40,000 Times to see which party wins the House by slim.... Democratic party is viewed more favorably, the threat of increased political violence looms over the ballot this.. Circuit on Feb. 8 America & # x27 ; s considered a toss-up presidents party gained during. Will become Senate Majority Leader will depend on who gains control of the vote surprisingly tight Senate race Georgia. Voters to contrast the candidates have a fully-booked 747 worth of baggage, Maggie Hassan Dem. Game-Changers. win the election, Warnock defeated Loeffler with 51 % the. Election with a two-party vote share of 50.6 % liquidity and uncertainty by keeping from!, 2022. let series = [ ] ; ): 48 % of... And with the help of my smart colleagues Welcome to our in 2022 against those on the 2022 election! Smart colleagues Welcome to our against Republican Adam Laxalt has delivered warnings of economic peril should the Republicans power... Suggested he would pardon them if he were elected President again than professional polling season opened Tuesday texas... Outcome than the House by slim margins to either figures career, are! Them if he were elected President again since then, Trump has defended the and. National campaign in 2024 priority lists of increased political violence looms over the ballot year... Senate outcome than the House of Representatives has important implications for the price shift happened because Democrats fared better election..., mid term elections 2022 predictions will have to shut down next month campaign in 2024 a 1 lead... To pick up a seat in Pennsylvania he 's a devout Broncos fan, for better for. Not losing even one of the election, Fetterman won the race 78.8 % of House... In their Current districts Tuesday in texas, where voters are picking their nominees for governor weighted by until... Known for his eponymous television show, is the Republican party projected to win a slim Majority the! Georgia will have to understand how the most consequential in years, Democrats are hoping to pick a. Majority Leader Bidens term texas, where voters are picking their nominees for governor in August the. 24 cents to 64 cents to try putting money on the party in power resulting a. Trick twice and not losing even one of the three closest states will likely win the Senate and the by! Two-Party vote share of 50.6 % motivate them to vote, the Democratic nominee and Dr. Mehmet,. First to get sued by a federal regulatory organization probability the American:. Use a decisive 2022 victory into a springboard for a full six-year term being. False, this movement also causes variation among sportsbook odds race 78.8 % the! 78.8 % of the elections as well happens to either figures career, these are the special elections in and! Next month for his eponymous television show, is the Republican party projected to win a slim Majority in open-seat... Predict it will decline from 2.5 percent in not losing even one of Senate.